The issue of Sen. Obama's proposed policy towards Iran has bugged me for a long time (I have diaried about it often), but his policy has just undergone another revision... so it deserves another diary.
From Sen. Obama's website:
Obama is the only major candidate who supports tough, direct presidential diplomacy with Iran without preconditions . Now is the time to pressure Iran directly to change their troubling behavior. Obama would offer the Iranian regime a choice. If Iran abandons its nuclear program and support for terrorism, we will offer incentives like membership in the World Trade Organization, economic investments, and a move toward normal diplomatic relations. If Iran continues its troubling behavior, we will step up our economic pressure and political isolation. Seeking this kind of comprehensive settlement with Iran is our best way to make progress.
What does it mean ?
In a nutshell, and in the same paragraph, Sen. Obama is promising to radically alter US policy towards Iran ("direct Presidential diplomacy with Iran without preconditions"), and then promising a continuation of current US policy towards Iran ("Now is the time to pressure Iran... offer a choice...If Iran does this, then we will ... If Iran does not do this, then we will...."). The current US policy is one of strategic containment, while holding low level discussions on tactical issues (such as Iraq). Thus, current US policy is identical to the 2nd part of Sen. Obama's position.
During the Democratic primary, the emphasis has been on the "negotiations without preconditions aspect" For instance:
"Would you be willing to meet separately, without precondition, during the first year of your administration, in Washington or anywhere else, with the leaders of Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba and North Korea?.....""I would," he answered.
But to CBS News on October 15, 2007, Obama defined leaders in the conventional way:Harry Smith: "You said, `I will talk to so and so and Hugo Chavez and etc., etc.'"
Obama: "Exactly, and without preconditions."
It seems like the emphasis during the Democratic primary (as illustrated by the two examples above) was to convey that a radical shift in official US policy was in the making. But the official campaign document (the website) clearly states that the actual implementation of the "negotiations without preconditions at the direct Presidential level" would involve no real change in current US policy.
Therefore, some more convoluted explanations are necessary. To wit, we have the following
There will be conditions, just not preconditions
and
""Well, first of all, he said he'd meet with the appropriate Iranian leaders. He hasn't named who that leader will be. It may, in fact be that by the middle of next of year, Ahmadinejad is long gone."
"We will negotiate without conditions, but not without preparation"
I mean... can someone clarify all this ?
What is a condition that is not a pre-condition ? Is it a post-condition ??
His campaign put out a statement further muddling the issue:
"Barack Obama has always said that he is willing to meet with appropriate Iranian leaders at the appropriate time after due preparation and advance work by US diplomats. That's what he said last summer, and that's what he's said throughout the campaign. Preparation is not a precondition it is absolutely necessary to the success of any diplomatic effort. You need to build an agenda and open lines of communication, just as we would do with any country, But Barack Obama believes we must be willing to lead, just like Kennedy did, and just like Reagan did. And that's what he will do as president."
So what would this preparation entail ?
Would it involve low(er) level US diplomats providing a list of things to low(er) level Iranian diplomats, wherein this list includes all the things (such as... ceasing Uranium enrichment) that Iran must work on prior to any Presidential summmit ?
or
Would it involve low(er) level US diplomats meeting with low(er) level Iranian diplomats to discuss the modalities of the meeting (we will meet in Cairo, Pres. Obama will be on the right, Pres. Ahmadinejad will be on the left... the TV angles and the natural lighting must favor Pres. Obama at all times..)
Because... you know...the former would be a continuation of current US policy, and the latter would involve a radical shift !!
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