Hillary didn't WANT Michigan & Florida counted!

First of all, let's get one thing straight:

Hillary Clinton does NOT have the lead in the popular vote. Following last night's primaries, if you use the estimates from the four caucuses (Iowa, Nevada, Maine, Washington) that don't release official numbers, Obama leads by 559K. If you leave out those four caucuses, it's still 449K.

Oh, but you wanna count Florida and Michigan? OK. If you add Florida, Obama still leads by 264K. Only... ONLY if you include BOTH Florida and Michigan, and give Obama ZERO votes from Michigan does Hillary take the lead... by between 63K and 173K, depending on if you include the four caucus states or not.

"But we MUST count Florida and Michigan!" you yell, "And we MUST count them the way the original votes were cast!"

Just one problem with that...

Hillary Clinton and her campaign didn't WANT those states to count!

(Thanks to JLFinch over at DKos for some of this info; his diary is here.)

On Aug. 25, when the DNC's rules panel declared Florida's primary date out of order, it agreed by a near-unanimous majority to exceed the 50 percent penalty called for under party rules. Instead, the group stripped Florida of all 210 delegates to underscore its displeasure with Florida's defiance and to discourage other states from following suit. Clinton held tremendous potential leverage over this decision, and not only because she was then widely judged the likely nominee. Of the committee's 30 members, a near-majority of 12 were Clinton supporters. All of them -- most notably strategist Harold Ickes -- voted for Florida's full disenfranchisement. (The only dissenting vote was cast by a Tallahassee, Fla., city commissioner who supported Obama.)

Not only that, but Hillary (and most other candidates) signed a pledge re. Michigan and Florida:

9/1/2007

Clinton Campaign Statement on the Four State Pledge

The following is a statement by Clinton Campaign Manager Patti Solis Doyle.

"We believe Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina play a unique and special role in the nominating process. And we believe the DNC's rules and its calendar provide the necessary structure to respect and honor that role. Thus, we will be signing the pledge to adhere to the DNC approved nominating calendar."

Hmmm... wonder what that pledge said. Here's the relevant part:

THEREFORE, I (Hillary Clinton), Democratic Candidate for President, pledge
I shall not campaign or participate in any state which schedules a presidential
election primary or caucus  before Feb. 5, 2008, except for the states of Iowa,
Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina, as "campaigning" is defined by
rules and regulations of the DNC.

And in case anyone had any doubt that Hillary was serious, here's a little something she had to say about Michigan (in October of last year):

"It's clear this election they are having is not going to count for anything."

But now, suddenly Hillary is all concerned about "disenfranchising" voters in these states. Never mind the fact that millions of people did NOT come out and vote, since they were told it wouldn't count. And I wonder.... you think, if it was Hillary with the lead in popular votes and delegates right now... you think she'd STILL be calling for the votes to count? "I know this will help Barack and not me, but it's important that all the votes are counted." Does anyone really, honestly believe she'd be saying that?



Display:


Do you guys ever get this feeling like (none / 0)

we're all going in circles on a lot of these issues? Just around and around and around, never accomplishing anything? I've been feeling that way for a long, long time... Just wondering if I'm the only one.


Even John McCain lusts after teh engels.
by sricki on Thu May 22, 2008 at 03:56:17 AM EST

Re: Do you guys ever get this feeling like (none / 0)

definitely not the only one...

does anybody have anything new to say?

----+++++silence+++++----


lemon716, mydd's little lemon drop;
by alyssa chaos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 04:05:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Do you guys ever get this feeling like (none / 0)

diarist,

where is your proof?


Until recently I was selling drugs, and now I'm selling Obama T-shirts.
by switching sides on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:40:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Do you guys ever get this feeling like (none / 0)

The proof is all over the internet, at every major media site, at zillions of blogs, and indeed the key evidence is cited in the diary itself.

However, this proof is invisible to those wearing glasses which block out any factual news which happens not to fit the Clinton-is-still-the-inevitable-nominee script.


by Hudson on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:02:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Do you guys ever get this feeling like (none / 0)

Time we focus on McCain. Let Obama and Hillary battle it out and the netroots start digging up all the dirt on McCain and presenting a succinct visceral talking point to take him down.


by Pravin on Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:59:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

wah wah wah (none / 0)

once again for the third time tonight I post this, MI and FL are a hot topic tonight; in the nature that you will see that:

She spoke about seating the FL and MI delegates prior to her losing. Jan 25th baby,

"I know other campaigns have tried to downplay the significance of these two states," Clinton told reporters in South Carolina Friday. "I think that is not a good strategy for Democrats or any of us who cares about the outcome of this election."

Clinton said, "I believe our nominee will need the enthusiastic support of Democrats in these states to win the general election, and so I will ask my Democratic convention delegates to support seating the delegations from Florida and Michigan," she said.

damn. the actual facts hurt. Jan 25 was before she was losing and before FL even got a chance to vote. Your busted talking point "well she didnt start arguing for them until she was losing wah wah wah," is crude so much so you didnt even check as to when and where she starting arguing for FL and MI re-instatement.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/01/2 5/america/Clinton-Florida-Delegates.php

Is it in HRC's interest to argue for the seatment of the delegates? yes, of course.

But then again its in any DEMOCRAT's interest.  


secondly, a person can change their mind, nothing wrong about that. Obama changed his mind on the gas tax, I changed my mind tonight thinking a sony may be better than a mac...

So she agreed to the sanctions, did she really have a choice, come on she couldnt have gone against the DNC.


lemon716, mydd's little lemon drop;
by alyssa chaos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 04:00:46 AM EST

Hillary wouldn't look so stupid and desperate... (none / 0)

... if she'd just do one thing: Stop saying, "The votes should be counted exactly as they were cast on election night." Even if she only said that about Florida, she wouldn't look quite so bad. But when she says it about Michigan? Where Obama got ZERO votes? I hope Hillary has noticed the attitude of people when she says that. When she says "Count Michigan votes as they were cast," people just kinda roll their eyes and stop listening to her. Hillary is really looking bad now... can't you see that?


by ratmach on Thu May 22, 2008 at 04:09:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

and desperate... (2.00 / 1)

oh sure but if MI hadn't sat on their hands they wouldn't be crying now. MI legislators and even BO, effectively killed the revote MI could have scored.

I realize that BO had legitimate concerns about the revote.But to outside opposition observers he effectively rallied against the revote by refusing to engage in the solution process.

Honestly, I favor the revote, but since that is dead I dont really have an opinion on MI. Its like a lost cause.

Now FL is a different ball game all together.


lemon716, mydd's little lemon drop;
by alyssa chaos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 04:20:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: and desperate... (none / 0)

he effectively rallied against the revote by refusing to engage in the solution process

...what exactly are you basing this on?  You seem to go from some fair assumptions into deeper assumptions like these that I can't imagine being based on a deep knowledge of the issue.  Since none of us really know what has happened behind the scenes.

I say we just wait until the public hearing at the end of the month.  Before then we're just yelling at the wall as far as I can tell.


by randomscientist on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:01:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: and desperate... (none / 0)

i clearly stated that in respect to outside observations,

his refusal to approve any plans suggested, like the mail in ballot, while only responding with I'll do whatever the DNC decides while the DNC approving revotes, came to be seen as a rally against revotes.

We shall never know what truly happened in MI, just as we shall never know what truly happened to the uncounted FL votes in 2000....

Im waiting for the True Hollywood Story.


lemon716, mydd's little lemon drop;
by alyssa chaos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:38:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

um (none / 0)

arguably? good fact-finding.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 06:54:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: wah wah wah (2.00 / 1)

A person can change their mind, indeed, that is (one) of Bush's fundamental flaws, that, as Stephen Colbert said so correctly, "He believes Wednesday the same thing he did Monday no matter what happened Tuesday."

But the difference is Clinton changed her mind after it was clear things were not going her way.

January 25 was three full weeks after the Iowa caucuses which fundamentally changed the race.  It was a day before the South Carolina race where it was clear Obama was going to win big (though not clear just HOW big).  

She was already losing at that point.


New Mexico politics from the local perspective.
by fbihop on Thu May 22, 2008 at 04:11:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: wah wah wah (none / 0)

NO I respectively disagree, She was still favored as a front runner at the time.

She still led him in delegates 237 to 140 at the time, not even a huge SC victory could have closed that gap.


lemon716, mydd's little lemon drop;
by alyssa chaos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 04:24:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: wah wah wah (2.00 / 1)

That, however, is counting Michigan and Florida.  And, as we all know, up to that point, she hadn't argued they should be seated.  Only when she realized things were not going her way did she start arguing for the seating of Michigan and Florida.

MI and FL broke the rules.  Are the rules the best they could be? No.

But you don't go and change your argument mid-stream when things start going badly for you.  It just looks bad.  My two cents, anyway.

For the record, I voted for Obama on Feb. 5 in New Mexico.  And the overwhelming turnout (literally overwhelming in many cases) was great to see, and should help us in November, no matter who gets the nomination -- at this point, I cannot see a realistic path for Clinton to get the nomination.

I just can't.

That many superdelegates are not going to change their minds at the convention.  I don't see why anyone thinks they will.


New Mexico politics from the local perspective.
by fbihop on Thu May 22, 2008 at 04:30:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: wah wah wah (none / 0)

these numbers do not include FL and MI, these were the numbers before they had even voted.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/01/2 5/america/Clinton-Florida-Delegates.php# top

if you can link your credible source disproving mine, I will definetely concede the point, however until then my case that this was one of her arguements before she was losing is still on the table.




Congrats for the big turnout. Same case here in West Texas (El Paso, pretty damn close to NM). IN previous precincts only two people would show up to caucuses, now 200. Its amazing and will definetly help in Nov.


It is hard for many to see the path, but it does exist and is tremendously narrow. like tight rope narrow, but I believe that as long as she has steadfast and dedicated supporters, she will continue her fight for the nomination. Her supporters have hope in her path, which speaks volumes and will continue to fuel her candidacy on the tight rope walk.


lemon716, mydd's little lemon drop;
by alyssa chaos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 04:40:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: wah wah wah (none / 0)

That was before Florida, but it was AFTER Michigan. Not sure whether your numbers include Michigan or not, but they definitely include more than just the other primaries up to that time (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada I believe is all). I'm thinking those numbers are including superdelegates, too.


by ratmach on Thu May 22, 2008 at 04:56:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: wah wah wah (none / 0)

This number does not include MI totals, they do include super delegates at that point in time.

my sole arguement that she was not arguing for the re-seatment soley because she was losing. The delegates show that she was winning at this point...


lemon716, mydd's little lemon drop;
by alyssa chaos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:11:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: wah wah wah (none / 0)

Where is your proof?


Until recently I was selling drugs, and now I'm selling Obama T-shirts.
by switching sides on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:41:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: wah wah wah (none / 0)

Come on, she's not that stupid. After Iowa she know it wasn't going to be easy. She wept before New Hampshire. In fact after Iowa she was asked by a journalist whether she would be able to overcome that, and she admitted that she thought about that question often, afterwards.
And I can tell you that even in remote France, after Iowa people were beginning to feel that it was going to be Barack Obama.
by french imp on Thu May 22, 2008 at 04:33:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: wah wah wah (none / 0)

ahh, lets leave the insults at the door.




Im sure no one decides to run for president thinking its easy, most of all HRC. duh, im not sure what you are arguing.

Is it that:

-you beleive she is disengenious about her arguement for the seatment of FL & MI even before she was losing

or

-???

[ahh yes France, how I wish to some day visit]


lemon716, mydd's little lemon drop;
by alyssa chaos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 04:45:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

But she DID think it was gonna be easy (none / 0)

Relatively easy, at least. And that was her single biggest mistake. She really thought Super Tuesday would be the end. From Dec. 17th:

MR. DOOCY: Would you be "the comeback senator"? Would you be "the comeback gal"? Have you thought about that yet?

SEN. CLINTON: I'm going to leave that to you. You all have a great way with a turn of phrase. But what I'm going to do is to just keep working hard every day, knocking on doors, making phone calls, talking to people. I feel very good about where we were. This has always been a challenge. I'm going to start on January 3rd with the caucuses in Iowa and go all the way until February 5th, because at the end of the campaign what you need are enough delegates to actually get you the nomination. And I believe that I will get the nomination and that I will be the next president.


by ratmach on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:04:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: But she DID think it was gonna be easy (2.00 / 2)

not sure what this really proves other than she was nearsighted in her thinking...Im talking about the change in the arguement for FL and MI that occurred in late January. that is what the diary is about...

-her campaign was near sighted, she underestimated Barack, probably the worst mistake her campaign could have made.


lemon716, mydd's little lemon drop;
by alyssa chaos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:15:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: But she DID think it was gonna be easy (none / 0)

Yes, but where is the proof?


Until recently I was selling drugs, and now I'm selling Obama T-shirts.
by switching sides on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:42:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: But she DID think it was gonna be easy (none / 0)

Ha! You had me worried there for awhile with all your "proof" comments... but I think I've got it now. ;p


by ratmach on Thu May 22, 2008 at 03:00:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: wah wah wah (none / 0)

Come on. Lets leave that crying thing in the fiction department were it belongs.

Her voice cracked up a bit. And some claims exists that her eyes might have gone a little misty while that didn't show conclusively on the video.

It detracts towards a reasonable discussion.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:06:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm not a Hillary fan, but... (none / 0)

... I don't have a problem if she really DID cry. Actually I'd like to see more politicians get emotional when they lose. I know if I worked for years to try to get somewhere, only to find out things were starting to fall apart, I'd be pretty upset. I don't have a problem with pols showing it. Now if she was PRETENDING to choke up, that would be different matter... but I don't think she was.


by ratmach on Thu May 22, 2008 at 03:04:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You can't forget (2.00 / 1)

The circumstances last year were much different than they are today.  First, it was expected that an early frontrunner would emerge and by the end of the process, the states could be seated without controversy.  That obviously didn't happen.

Second, the 100% reduction in delegates was designed to encourage the states to hold contests that would be fully recognized after February 5.  Unfortunately, with all the red tape involved and the Dem-hostile legislatures in FL and MI, that couldn't be accomplished.  

We essentially had GOP-run legislators move the primary date as a way to screw with the party and deprive the Dems in that state of a voice in the nominating process.  They succeeded.  There may have been a few egomaniacal Dem state legislators complicit in the operation too.  Either way, punishing the voters for something beyond their control is ridiculous.  They just wanted a say in this process like everyone else in every other state.  

If the Democratic party won't hear them, who will?

Oh... right.  The GOP, this November.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:17:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Dem-hostile? (none / 0)

Democrats control the Michigan House and the Governor's office.

and Democratic leaders in Florida not only didn't FIGHT the Republicans on moving the primary, they supported it and called it bipartisan and great.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 06:56:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dem-hostile? (none / 0)

Yes, they did fight it, until the Republicans attached funding for new voting machines to the bill with the early primary date.
It would have been stupid, after what happened in 2000, not to have new voting machines in place in Florida for the GE.

Party leaders, Chairwoman Thurman and members of Congress then lobbied Democratic members of the Legislature through a variety of means to prevent the primary from moving earlier than February 5th.  Party leadership and staff spent countless hours discussing our opposition to and the ramifications of a pre-February 5th primary with legislators, former and current Congressional members, DNC members, DNC staff, donors, activists, county leaders, media, legislative staff, Congressional staff, municipal elected officials, constituency leaders, labor leaders and counterparts in other state parties.  In response to the Party's efforts, Senate Democratic Leaders Geller and Wilson and House Democratic Leaders Gelber and Cusack introduced amendments to CS/HB 537 to hold the Presidential Preference Primary on the first Tuesday in February, instead of January 29th. These were both defeated by the overwhelming Republican majority in each house.

The primary bill, which at this point had been rolled into a larger legislation train, went to a vote in both houses. It passed almost unanimously. The final bill contained a whole host of elections legislation, much of which Democrats did not support. However, in legislative bodies, the majority party can shove bad omnibus legislation down the minority's throats by attaching a couple of things that made the whole bill very difficult, if not impossible, to vote against. This is what the Republicans did in Florida, including a vital provision to require a paper trail for Florida elections. There was no way that any Florida Democratic Party official or Democratic legislative leader could ask our Democratic members, especially those in the Florida Legislative Black Caucus, to vote against a paper trail for our elections. It would have been embarrassing, futile, and, moreover, against Democratic principles.

http://www.fladems.com/page/content/make itcount-faqs/#q3


by skohayes on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:28:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

She was losing - losing Super Tuesday (2.00 / 1)

she only changed position, the day before the South Carolina primary.  

Florida was the only contest btwn SC and super Tuesday.  She wanted to generate positive coverage from Florida, in part to blunt the SC coverage, in part to have the last headline going into Super Tuesday, but more importantly because her campaign placed all it's bets on a decisive, overwhelming S.T. outcome, and had just run out of money.

It was at this point, the end of January, when she had to lend herself $5 million and ended the month $12.6 in debt.  

Her reversal wasn't about a prior lose, no, it was about losing something far more important then a prior contest, it was about losing Super Tuesday.

Because of her depleted war chest, she need a BIG S.T. win.  Anything short of a big S.T. victory would be a lose.  As we saw, failing to knock him out on S.T. gave Obama the opportunity to win 12 contests in a row.

the merit of her current advocacy aside, she changed position at the end of January, because her campaign WAS in dire straits.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Thu May 22, 2008 at 04:45:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: She was losing - losing Super Tuesday (none / 0)

so it was about not losing Super Tuesday, Super Tuesday was weeks away, how would that influence her Jan. sentiments.

We are working backwards, but HRC was not.   seeing as HRC isn't a psychic I dont see how you can contend that she knew she was going to lose ST big.

Her reversal wasn't about a prior lose, no, it was about losing something far more important then a prior contest, it was about losing Super Tuesday.

HOw would arguing for seatment be seen as positve the day before the SC primary?

[i need links for your 5 million claim, specific dates namely, this is a timeline issue so the dates are most important AL]


lemon716, mydd's little lemon drop;
by alyssa chaos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 04:54:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

10 days (none / 0)

10 days in between Friday, Jan 25 and Tuesday, Feb 5.


Hillary Rodham Clinton ended January with $7.6 million in debt -- not including the $5 million personal loan she gave to her campaign in the run-up to the critical Super Tuesday elections

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/020 8/8613.html

let me accentuate: she needed a BIG win on S.T.   She needed a KNOCK OUT on S.T.  Anything less would be a loss, because it would give Obama a free hand to use his financial advantage to run up a huge score in February.  

And what happened:  the delegates were approximately split on S.T., allowing Obama to continue, and without a war chest, Obama won 12 contests in row.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:05:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 10 days (none / 0)

"Obama won 12 contests in row."

And in my opinion, THAT is when he won the nomination. If the talking heads in the MSM had admitted that, it probably would have ended long ago. Hillary has basically just been treading water ever since then.


by ratmach on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:11:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Let me add. (none / 0)


It wasn't about changing the following day's outcome in SC.  It was about influencing and capturing the narrative after the SC had posted.

Generated positive media coverage after SC, again, would blunt the SC coverage, capture the last headlines before S.T., and generate momentum going into S.T.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:12:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let me add. (none / 0)

the delegates were approximately split on S.T., allowing Obama to continue

a split hardly seems like a knockout.

I get how she would want an upper hand in the narrative in MSM, but if she was to win FL wouldn't that provide positive MSM narratives, anyways.

But why argue for FL before you have won it, If your theory is true,  then seemingly she would henceably argue after the results. not prior unless she already knew the FL results.

[correct me if im wrong, i kept having to go back and forth between your posts and have seemingly confused myself]


lemon716, mydd's little lemon drop;
by alyssa chaos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:32:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

let me give it a shot. (2.00 / 1)

1.25 Fri - Hill reverses Flordia position

1.26 Sat - S.C. Vote

1.27 Sun - S.C. Heatlines/Narrative

1.28 Mon - State of the Union

1.29 Tue - Florida Vote

1.30 Wed - Florida headlines/narrative

1.31 Thur- Debate

2.01 Fri - Campaign

2.02 Sat - Campaign

2.03 Sun - lite day SuperBowl

2.04 Mon - Campaign

2.05 Tue - Super Tuesday Vote

1. Okay. Florida was a big event.  But she could only participate if she reversed her position.

2. she goes down to FL on Tuesday and claims victory, giving prime time interviews.  

3. She appeared on Wednesday's morning news shows and her victory was covered in all papers

Again, her decision to reverse was designed to allow her to claim victory.  Victory would allow her to create an event, covered by all the nets and by all the papers.

And the entire effort was to block Obama's momentum ftom SC and to create her own momentum going into the ST weekend.

It was all designed to boost the outcome of S.T.

They need a BIG S.T. outcome to stop obama.    

It didn't work.  The Florida victory didn't create enough momentum to score a decisive victory on ST.

But at least they tried.  

In the end, they split the delegates on S.T., allowing Barack to go on.  He then leveraged his financial advantage to win 12 in a row.

so once again, the reversal was about allwoing her to claim victory on the day of the vote.  Then they hoped the bump proved enough momentum to push them over the top on S.T.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Thu May 22, 2008 at 06:47:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: let me give it a shot. (2.00 / 1)

great job AL. thats a damn good timeline.


lemon716, mydd's little lemon drop;
by alyssa chaos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 06:50:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Florida victory rally (none / 0)

Florida had the vote on tuesday.  That when the networks had their coverage.  That's when the newspapers ran their stories.

She need to claim victory on Tuesday nite, to get the across the board cable coverage, in order to call the newspaper headlines, in order to get on all the morning shows on Wednesday.

She had to reverse prior to election day, in order to participate in the big election night coverage.  

They wanted and needed all the free coverge and momentum they could get, cuz S.T. was only 7 days away.


"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!
by Al Rodgers on Thu May 22, 2008 at 06:55:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: let me give it a shot. (1.00 / 1)

Al, youre going to have to provide some proof.

This ain't KOS.


Until recently I was selling drugs, and now I'm selling Obama T-shirts.
by switching sides on Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:48:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Let me add. (none / 0)

Al: the narrative is not "did she support the exclusion then, and now she needs the delegates (and prolonging the indecision until the convention)so she changes her mind (that's the obvious story) and demands the delegates be seated.

No, the narrative is there was a calculated effort by the Clinton forces in Michigan and Florida, two states she had the lead in and was the strongest going into January to pry them out of the schedule and get a win even if it turned
into  "straw poll/ beauty contest" kind of wins.
She calculated she could dispense with their delegates because the tidalwave would be rolling and she would easily reach the finish line once the Super Tuesday wins and others fell her way.
She needed Iowa and NH to fall, then MI and FL, then SC if possible, but she would have momentum into Super Tuesday with the 4/5 and leave all behind.

It was an ambitious attacking strategy, but it had the risk of failing early and leaving her a very hard catch up process.


by PeteRock on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:58:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: wah wah wah (none / 0)

Your busted talking point "well she didnt start arguing for them until she was losing wah wah wah," is crude so much so you didnt even check as to when and where she starting arguing for FL and MI re-instatement.
Nice attempt at a dodge, but the diarist made no such claim in this diary.  The facts are that Hillary Clinton's campaign had a strong hand in stripping FL & MI, she personally pledged to support that decision, and she publicly reaffirmed that decision.  Damn.  The actual facts hurt.

Your busted talking point is so crude, you probably didn't even read what you failed to rebut.


Nos causidicus Obama , ergo nos non suadeo
by rb608 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 06:24:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: wah wah wah (none / 0)

the diarist was claiming that HRC didn't want the votes (MI and FL)to count citing various statements made before 2008.

My quote showed a statement directly made by Sen. Clinton that countered the diarist claims. I added the arguement that included the analysis of the Jan. 25 comment, referencing to when this reversal in arguement was made, respective to the events taking place at the time (no argument after S.T., when essentially many claim it is the death of her campaign [including the diarist])meaning that after ST she was losing and therefore  many claim she sought the arguement of MI and FL, being beneficial and convenient to her winning. I argued against this rationality and thus arguing against the diarist's original claim.

I anticipated the talking points that were most likely to come up in the discussion. They almost go hand in hand.




I dont intend on dodging anything. unless its heavy looking or sharp. Thanks for you comment.


lemon716, mydd's little lemon drop;
by alyssa chaos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:21:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: wah wah wah (none / 0)

No, no, no.  Your quote does not counter the diarists claims, it only highlights her change of position.  The diarist's quotes are accurate.  HRC's position was accurately portrayed.  

And contrary to your assertion, Clinton was already losing by 1/25/08.  In fact, she'd been somewhat embarrassed with a 3rd place finish in Iowa.  So by your chronology, she did change her position after she was losing.  No, FL & MI had not yet voted, but her inevitability had already been shattered.


Nos causidicus Obama , ergo nos non suadeo
by rb608 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:09:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: wah wah wah (none / 0)

sorry but youll have to provide links before I concede any ground to you. Accordingto my link, the delegate total had HRC winning (a total in which supers were included).

You suggest that after finishing third in Iowa she was effectvely done? the delegate total begs to differ. Provide your links.

The diarist was trying to prove that HRC did not care for MI and FL, the comment I provided showed that HRC had stated that she wished to see the delegation seated therefore 'caring' about MI and FL; a stark contrast to the quotes the diarist provided.

Furthermore, Im not arguing that she has never changed her position on MI and FL, rather my arguement is the circumstance that surround the change in her MI and FL stance.


lemon716, mydd's little lemon drop;
by alyssa chaos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:47:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: wah wah wah (none / 0)

I guess we're coming from different perspectives.  By January 25, Hillary had lost to Obama in every delegate count to that date (IA, NH, and NV).  In addition, she had to have seen the SC rout coming the next day.  http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/

By January 25, the MI debacle had already occurred, and she could clearly see the benefit to her of pushing for those delegates.

Yes, she was still ahead if supers were counted; but she was clearly losing, with more and bigger losses on the horizon.

Given those numbers, I cannot accept that her "conversion" to seating FL and MI were a pure change of heart for the good of democracy.


Nos causidicus Obama , ergo nos non suadeo
by rb608 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 01:21:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: wah wah wah (none / 0)

she was losing to Barack by three delegates, I believe according the site I mention above. with out super delegates.

_i definetly understand the view you take, and rightly so i am on the opposite site of this view.

I dont believe that her 'conversion' for the seatment of delegates was because of warm fuzzies, rather i only argue the counterpoint that she does it before it is politically convenient. so we halfly agree on one aspect of the prism.


lemon716, mydd's little lemon drop;
by alyssa chaos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 01:37:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: wah wah wah (none / 0)

We're probably not that far apart in general on this.  According to the CNN site numbers, she dropped 13 in Iowa, 1 in NH (despite winning the popular vote) and 3 more in NV.  Compared to her starting SD lead, 17 delegates wasn't earthshaking, but in terms of public perception & fundraising, it was serious.  

I'll also give you that her conversion may not have been politically convenient at that moment, but it was non-specific enough to open the door should she need it later; and I know she was looking ahead.

I like her, really, and her political shrewdness was an admirable quality when "used for good".  It's less attractive when used for Hillary.  I dunno, maybe BHO really is a poor choice and I don't see it, and HRC is the savior of the nation, and that's why she's hanging in there; but I gotta go with Ockam's Razor.


Nos causidicus Obama , ergo nos non suadeo
by rb608 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 01:57:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Been here. Done that. (2.00 / 1)

I agree with the diarist but the conversation has been hashed and rehashed numerous times.


We want to see Ivana [Trump] because we are so desperate in Alaska for any semblance of glamour and culture. - Sarah Palin
by spacemanspiff on Thu May 22, 2008 at 04:31:49 AM EST

Re: Been here. Done that. (2.00 / 1)

You're right. But I just feel like we can't let Hillary (and some of her supporters) keep repeating their talking false points without us countering them. Watch the people at her rallies. When she says stuff like, "I now have the lead in popular votes," everyone cheers. Some of them look pretty surprised, and then they cheer like crazy. I actually feel sorry for those people... Hillary is just flat our LYING to her own supporters, and making fools of them!


by ratmach on Thu May 22, 2008 at 04:39:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Been here. Done that. (2.00 / 2)

I understand. The Clinton supporters left on this site are not fools (for the most part) they just need an argument and a little bit of spin to keep their candidate afloat. That being said, everybody knows the score. The same way Obama and Clinton can do each others lines in a debate here on MyDD everybody can recite each others rebuttals and counter arguments.

A great diary and recc'ed!


We want to see Ivana [Trump] because we are so desperate in Alaska for any semblance of glamour and culture. - Sarah Palin
by spacemanspiff on Thu May 22, 2008 at 04:44:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Most of your points... (none / 0)

...have already been thoroughly debunked.

I realize that anti-democratic principles have an exciting allure for Obama and his surrogates, but unfortunately for the "Obama math," we count all of the states and territories in tabulating the popular vote.  This may make more sense to you when the RBC reinstates their delegations (for pretty obvious reasons, one being that it doesn't change the outcome).  

We count caucuses which fail international election standards by countless mesaures (no secret ballot? ZOMG primitive).  We count states that voted before the Wright revelations; we count states that voted after them, equally.  We don't play make believe with hypotheticals about what would have happened if elections were held on different days, if different people came and voted, if more would have voted, if less would have voted, if they would have voted differently had they heard something on the news that day, etc.  The point is we count states as they are reported.  For the four states lacking a universal tally, we can accept some estimates with a grain of salt.  

Barack Obama sabotaged the Michigan election when he removed his name from the ballot.  I feel like I'm writing this for the 48th time (incidentally, the number of states in Obama's ideal nation) but there was no rule that required the drastic step of removing one's name from any state's ballot.

Got it?  

NO RULE.

There were rules that forbade campaigning in Michigan and Florida (and technically Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina) but nothing required or encouraged the removal of one's name from the ballot.

Anyone who believes the farce that Barack Obama surrogates have promulgated about "complying with the rules" by removing his name from Michigan's ballot is not attuned to the cold hard reality of the situation.  What he did was a voluntary free act that had the calculated effect of sabotaging the Michigan election and making it almost impossible to gauge voter's intent there.  It helped his stature in Iowa and delegitimized an early huge loss he was anticipating there.  That kind of anti-democratic behavior deserves no reward by creating imaginary Obama votes or imaginary 50/50 delegate splits from a state he intentionally gambled away.  No one is ready to exclude the state of Michigan from a national vote tabulation merely because it would be convenient for Barack Obama.  He chose to receive no votes there; he received no votes there.  He knew what he was doing.  

Hillary has won the certified popular vote in all contests held thus far.  She even wins it when you impute imaginary caucus attendance estimates into the total.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:11:48 AM EST

FI and MI may be "certified" (2.00 / 1)

But they most certainly do not count.


Users who are excessively bashing the Democratic Party, or being Republican trolls, will be banned.
by Massadonious on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:29:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FI and MI may be "certified" (none / 0)

just another beauty contest in clear spite of the last beauty contest...


lemon716, mydd's little lemon drop;
by alyssa chaos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:43:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FI and MI may be "certified" (none / 0)

If I had my way, none of the caucuses would count.  They're an insult to democracy.

But in the name of equality, we include everything in the popular vote tally.


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:48:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Most of your points... (none / 0)

"It's clear this election they are having [in Michigan] is not going to count for anything." -- Hillary Clinton

Plus the pledge she signed said not only that she wouldn't "campaign", but also that she wouldn't "participate" in the election process. But now we're supposed to believe having your name on the ballot doesn't involve "participating"?

Hmmm...

Oh, and why do I have this feeling that Hillary would STILL be saying, "It's clear this election they are having is not going to count for anything," if she was ahead in the delegate count?

Face it. She doesn't care about voters. She cares about WINNING... that's it. She has said as much. She's said (implied, at least) that caucus states don't count, that "small" states don't count, that "red" states don't count. Keith O. has the full list, if anyone's interested.


by ratmach on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:33:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Most of your points... (none / 0)

You can make fun of Hillary as much as you want and show that some of her comments appear to be inconsistent (granted).  But this isn't about comments she has made.  It's about the fact that a national tally of votes cast in all contests includes every state and territory's certified total.  

Obama doesn't get to tweeze Michigan out of the total just as Hillary supporters can't exclude the tallies from caucuses that are so out of synch with international election standards, they shock the conscience far more than Michigan's primary.  

When you count all the contests, Hillary received more votes.

And even when you exclude the "unfair" ones (Michigan and the caucuses), Hillary received more votes.


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:47:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No, it's about her comments (none / 0)

I question her intergrity if she changes her tune like this. Clinton's problem is too many people don't trust her. This doesn't help her situation.

She NEVER should've said they won't count if she believes that, and if she believes that, she should be so bold as to say they still won't count, even if it means she wins.

Why can't she make up her mind? What changed between January and now that she has magically discovered Michigan and Florida should count?


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:00:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No, it's about her comments (none / 0)

Clinton's position was either inconsistent or she was going along with the party narrative intended to persuade legislatures in MI & FL to hold a revote.  

I don't doubt that there's an element of self-interest in seating the delegations.  I also don't doubt that there's an element of self-interest on Barack's part in trying to suppress them.  

I do know which position is a stronger argument.

"Count all the votes."

v.

"Exclude 2.3 million voters because of a technicality."


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:03:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Most of your points... (none / 0)

ratmach, unfair.

I already provided you with another quote, effectively disproving your claim, that she is arguing only when beneficial to her winning.

You are basically spreading rumor, "She doesn't care about voters." Im sorry that you dont like Sen. Clinton, actually Im not sorry, I take it back. Have you ever attended an event, a roundtable. You are super unfair and close minded.

Advice: Turn off the TV. Stop letting Keith O. dictate your political ideals and allowing him to shape your opinions about HRC, research HRC youself and try formulating your own opinion instead of eating up KO.

Guess what kiddies, I've met her and she's the real deal and Im open to meeting Barack if he ever decides to give my community his valuable time. Seems to me that those who hate dont care.


lemon716, mydd's little lemon drop;
by alyssa chaos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:55:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

How is it unfair? (none / 0)

Did she say that or not?


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:01:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How is it unfair? (none / 0)

she said it.

Unfair was refering to the fact that he discounts the later statement made by Sen. Clinton. and the remarks regarding how the Sen. doesnt care about the voters.


lemon716, mydd's little lemon drop;
by alyssa chaos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 07:09:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If it was just about MI & FL... (none / 0)

... and Hillary's comments re. those states, you'd be right. I wouldn't come down so hard on her if that was the whole story. But it's not. My problem with her goes WAY beyond that.

What about her constant praising of McCain as compared to Obama? Something you do NOT do... attacking a person in your own party while talking up someone in the other party.

What about her and her campaign praising Faux "News". Meeting with O'Reilly and Scaife?! (This is NOT at all comparable to Obama meeting with Chris Wallace.)

And here's a big one: What about how she and her people felt about the Wright affair fading? Her campaign was "frustrated, confused, and furious" that the Rev. Wright controversy was losing traction among the public and the media. Hillary and her people WANTED Jeremiah Wright (and by extension Obama) to be "brought down" by the controversy! Even though Wright is a little over the top at times, and doesn't know when to keep quiet, it's totally obvious he is a GOOD man, who had done tons of good for the community. Yet Hillary was "furious" he wasn't gonna be completely buried?!

Her "I'm tougher than you are!" stance on several occasions, like "obliterating" Iran.

Her attitude re. Bosnia sniper fire. I'm NOT so concerned that she told the lie. I AM concerned that she literally smiled and laughed as she described it. Then went on Leno and JOKED about it. Many people -- even little kids and old men and women -- have DIED from sniper fire. But Hillary jokes about it?


by ratmach on Thu May 22, 2008 at 03:33:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If it was just about MI & FL... (none / 0)

i thought the whole diary was about MI and FL.

in response to Sniper fire jokes on Jay Leno, ....she was making fun of yourself, realizing how inredibly stupid the comments were. How you infer she was making light of sniper fire victims is fuzzy.


lemon716, mydd's little lemon drop;
by alyssa chaos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 04:00:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well "IT" Isn't Up to Hillaryr or Obama (none / 0)

It's up to the Party. And it would be a grievous error not to count those states. It appears that a number of states broke the rules but only Florida and Michigan have been sanctioned. This selective application of the rules may come back to haunt the Party in November. Florida has suffered the double indignity of being rebuffed both by the Supreme Court and the Democratic Party.


by hypopg on Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:51:04 AM EST


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